Monday, January 28, 2008

A Presidential Prediction

Next Tuesday, we will more than likely know the two people who will be running for the office of president of the United States. It seems like this has been a long time in coming. And if you’re just now joining us for the presidential campaigning, you haven’t missed anything that we can’t catch you up on.

The Nevada Caucuses and the South Carolina Republican Primary are through reporting, and it seems as if we have our front-runners, a match-up for Election Day: Hillary Clinton and John McCain.
For the record, I am biased toward the Republicans; I’ll admit that. But you have to think that this is the best ballot the Republican Party could hope for (barring the entrance of NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, but that would be a different story altogether).

Why is this good for the Republican Party? First, they aren’t going against Barack Obama. I know many of the Democrats on our campus are Obama supporters, and they will be glad to hear me say that he has the best shot of beating any Republican. If he were to face McCain (who was born in Panama and would be the first president to be born outside the 50 states) it would be the largest age gap in presidential race history ­— a larger gap than Clinton-Dole from 1996. However, Obama, the “candidate of change,” has not been materializing his numbers at the polls well enough to overtake Clinton’s front-runner status. Sigh of relief from the Republicans.

Second, McCain is known as a rebel, a maverick, but at 72 years old, he would be the oldest president to be inaugurated for the first time (Ronald Reagan was 73 when he was inaugurated for the second time in 1985).
McCain is seen as a national hero and a moral, well-respected man. Clinton, on the other hand, is disliked by more than a third of Americans. Conservative Republicans will vote for McCain, yes, but more so they will vote against Clinton. Clinton’s experience card doesn’t seem to play well against McCain.

Third, if you don’t believe me, I’ll reference the polls. I know that polls can be wrong (see New Hampshire), but we can trust them most of the time. Only one Republican beats Clinton. Only one Republican beats any of the three Democratic candidates. That’s right: McCain. Why? Because McCain is more of a centrist than any of the other candidates. He is a straight-talker. And, for the most part, he has been proven right, time and again.

So, before you let someone tell you McCain is soft on immigration (which he is not) or that he is too entrenched in the game of politics (which he is not), seek to learn about him, and the other candidates as well, or at least hear both sides and make up your own mind.

And now, time to play Nostradamus: I will attempt to predict the future. Assuming I am correct with McCain vs. Clinton (and I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong), who will be their VP running-mates? My picks: A Democratic ticket of New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (also their former governor) versus the Republican ticket of Arizona Senator John McCain and … former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (but watch out for Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman).

So, good luck to Senator Clinton and to Senator McCain; they both deserve our respect.

Thanks for reading. And remember: politics is fun, but it’s not everything.


Drew said...

I've been thinking Huckabee was going to run as the Republican VP ticket since he petered off after Iowa. He has the potential to influence a large number of fundamentalist evangelical conservatives, and could bolster McCain's more centrist leanings.

It will be stupid move for the Democrats to favor Hillary merely because she pulls more support now. I'm not sure they understand the force that nega-voters will be if Clinton gets the Democrats nomination. Obviously I'm stuck inside of my own world views, but it seems to me Obama has a lot more power to woo the moderate conservatives.

It's going to be fun to watch and talk about, that is for sure!

christopher said...

Not sure why you referred to Clinton as the front-runner for the Democrats.

There really is no one clear "front-runner." And Obama currently has more actual votes and more delegates than Clinton.

I'm hoping for an Obama vs. Romney scenario. That would be great.

DM said...

Someone on Political Cartel suggested that if Obama wins the nomination, he should pick Colin Powell as his running mate. He couldn't pick a better leader or a better person. Powell also has a lot of experience, especially with foreign policy. Most importantly, it shows that Obama is serious about bipartisan cooperation by picking a Republican running mate, but not one of the crazy ones.